Attendees: 18.

Summary: The 7th Logos London circle engaged in a data-backed debate on Growth Engine, Public Spending, and State Performance (source: stateofbritain.uk). Points raised: Tax at historic highs since WW2, debt ~95% GDP; productivity flat since 2008, with public sector productivity unclear; digital infra strong, while physical infra crumbles; treasury spending £71B to cover ongoing Bank of England losses on QE bond sales; government increasing R&D spend on AI and data centres. Next steps include scoping issues to expand on actionable items (high-win potential, medium winnable, long-term / structural) for targeted local campaigns and parallel pilots.

1. GROWTH ENGINE

Productivity Flat since the 2008 Crisis

• UK output per hour in 2024: £46.66/hr (index 99.25, down from 100 in 2023)
• Internationally (2023, USD PPP): UK at $79.49/hr - below the US ($97.05), Germany ($93.72), and France ($87.30), but above the OECD average ($70.60)
• The UK's productivity index has been essentially flat since 2008 (92.65 → 99.25 over 16 years), a dramatic slowdown from the pre-crisis trend of ~2% annual growth
• Highest-productivity sectors: Mining & quarrying (£248/hr), Electricity/gas (£198/hr), Financial services (£105/hr). Lowest: Accommodation & food (£23/hr)

Business Investment at a Critical Low Point

• UK GFCF (2025): £565.5B, with business investment share at 55.6%
• As % of GDP (2023): UK at 18.9% is last among major economies, below the OECD average of 22.9%, and far behind South Korea (31.4%), Japan (26%), and France (22.8%)
• Intangibles investment (2025): £148.5B - the largest asset category, reflecting a services-heavy economy
• Buildings investment rose to £192.4B in 2025, suggesting some construction rebound

Business Demographics Show Fragile Recovery

• Business births (2024): 317,440 - marginally up from 316,025 (2023) but well below the 2019/2021 peak of ~364,000
• Deaths fell sharply to 280,370 (from 348,675 in 2022)
• Active firms: 2.86M - still in decline from the 2021 peak of 2.94M
• 5-year survival rate: only 38.4% (2019 cohort). The 2022 cohort is tracking worse at 68.9% after 2 years vs. 74.7% for 2019
• High-growth firms: 14,330 (2024) shows a new high, up from the 2021 trough of 10,695